Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?

**Market Overview** The prediction market "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?" is currently trading at 46.0% on Polymarket, reflecting real-time sentiment and odds from 19 active participants. As of February 23, 2026, this market has generated $701 in total trading volume, making it an emerging prediction market in the general category. **Current Odds & Price Action** The "Yes" outcome is priced at 46.0%, while "No" trades at 54.0%. The market has remained relatively stable over the past 24 hours, suggesting established consensus among traders about the likely outcome. **Liquidity & Trading Conditions** This market offers $3.3K in liquidity, suitable for retail-sized positions. **Market Timeline** This prediction market will remain open for 222 more days (until Oct 4, 2026), providing ample time for price discovery as new information emerges.